Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Auburn Tigers Pick & Prediction NOVEMBER 2nd 2024
Preview and Prediction
Vanderbilt will make a second endeavor to attain bowl eligibility on Saturday afternoon as they travel to Auburn.
The Commodores (5-3, 2-2 Southeastern Conference) had their three-game winning streak broken in a 27-24 loss against then-No. 5 Texas last Saturday.
Auburn (3-5, 1-4), on the other hand, put an end to their four-game losing streak with a 24-10 triumph over Kentucky on Saturday.
The Tigers secured a 31-16 victory over the Commodores last year in Nashville, largely due to Jarquez Hunter's impressive performance. Hunter rushed for 183 yards and two touchdowns.
However, the game that has been the talk of the week is Auburn's 2023 match against New Mexico State, which took place two weeks after their game against Vanderbilt.
In that game, Diego Pavia - who is now Vanderbilt's quarterback - completed 19 of 28 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns. He also had eight carries for 35 yards. Tight end Eli Stowers also had a notable performance with four receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown in a 31-10 win for the Aggies.
Both Pavia and Stowers are now key players for the Commodores, and their coach, Clark Lea, has designed his 2024 offensive strategy around them. Lea is joined in Nashville by the same coach (Jerry Kill, now an offensive analyst) and offensive coordinator (Tim Beck) who orchestrated last year's upset.
"I've had enough of that quarterback. I'm tired of seeing him," Auburn coach Hugh Freeze joked on Monday, referring to Pavia. "He's agile, makes plays, and is intelligent and resilient. He forces everyone to do their job on every play or else they'll get burned."
This could potentially be a nightmare for Auburn, as they currently rank 125th in the nation in turnover margin (minus-9).
However, the Tigers' defense has been able to overcome this weakness, only allowing an average of 19.5 points per game (26th nationally).
"Defensively, they're quick and aggressive and they cover the field well," Lea commented. "Their rate of forcing incomplete passes is among the best in the country. They play with a strong identity and an edge. It will be difficult to find open space. We need to create it."
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Auburn Tigers Recap NOV 2TH 2024
Gritty Vanderbilt (6-3, 3-2 Southeastern Conference) used special teams, third-down defense and late-game clock control to get a 17-7 road upset of Auburn (3-6, 1-5) on Saturday afternoon and become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2018.
It's the Commodores' first win at Jordan-Hare Stadium ever, and its first road win over Auburn since 1948, snapping a string of nine-straight road losses in the series.
Vanderbilt didn't complete a pass in the second or third quarter and had a long rushing play of seven yards.
But Commodore quarterback Diego Pavia (9-of-22, 143 yards, 12 carries, 26 yards) sucked the life out of the Tigers at the end, engineering a game-clinching drive that took 8:53 off the clock and ended with a 4-yard touchdown pass to Eli Stowers with 4:18 left.
Vanderbilt punter Jesse Mirco had eight punts for a 52.9-yard average and had a big hand in handing Auburn poor field position.
The Commodores held Auburn to 2-of-13 on third downs.
With the game tied at 7 in the third quarter, Mirco hit a 44-yard punt that was downed at the Auburn 2. The Tigers failed to move it past the one after their ninth-straight failed third-down conversion.
Auburn punter Oscar Chapman smacked a 59-yard rocket in return, but Vanderbilt's Martel Hight returned it 39 yards to the Tiger 21, setting up Taylor's 31-yard field goal from the left hash with 1:05 remaining in the third quarter.
Taylor added a 26-yard field goal with 5:18 left, but Auburn's Keldric Faulk was whistled for a personal foul for gaining illegal leverage in trying to block the kick.
Exactly a minute later, Pavia hit Stowers in the flat and he banged his way into the end zone from 4 yards out, culminating a 14-play, 78-yard drive.
Auburn's hopes were effectively snuffed out when Towns McGough pushed a 52-yard field goal to the right, his second miss of the day.
Auburn got an ideal first-half game script, holding Vanderbilt to 29 rushing yards while out-gaining the Commodores, 214-132 and minimizing mistakes (two penalties, no turnovers).
But the Tigers went to halftime tied at 7 due to going 0-for-7 on third downs, allowing three sacks and a fantastic performance from Mirco (five punts, 54.8 yards in the first half).
Vanderbilt struck first when running back AJ Newberry got open on the right sideline behind an Auburn defender and Pavia hit him in stride for a 28-yard score.
Auburn finally strung a drive together midway through the second quarter. On a fourth-and-2 from the Auburn 49, Thorne hit Malcom Simmons with a short throw near the sticks that Simmons ran to the Commodore 30.
A play later, Thorne hit Rivaldo Fairweather down the right side, with Fairweather weaving through defenders, breaking tackles and stretching to touch the pylon with the football for a touchdown that tied the game.