Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators Pick & Prediction MAY 1st 2025

Preview and Prediction

In technical terms, it is the Ottawa Senators who find themselves on the verge of elimination as they prepare to face the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference first-round series on Thursday.

However, it can be argued that the Maple Leafs are also under immense pressure, having won the first three games of the best-of-seven series.

Ottawa managed to extend the series with a 4-0 victory over Toronto on Tuesday. Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle each recorded two assists and scored empty-net goals, while Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens also found the back of the net.

If the Senators are able to pull off a win in Game 6, they will become just the fifth team in NHL history, and the first since the 2014 Los Angeles Kings, to come back from a 3-0 series deficit and advance to the next round. This would also add to the already infamous playoff struggles of their Ontario rivals.

When given the opportunity to clinch a series, the Maple Leafs have only been successful once in their last 14 attempts. The franchise has also not won a Game 7 since April 20, 2004, when they defeated the Senators 4-1 to advance to the second round.

The only other time the Maple Leafs have advanced in the playoffs since then was in 2023, when they won a first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning before ultimately being eliminated in the second round.

During a press conference on Wednesday, first-year Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube acknowledged the team's past postseason struggles, but also downplayed their significance.

"As we get deeper into the playoffs, there's more noise and talk about past events," he stated. "But that's just part of the game. The only pressure these players should feel is from their own teammates, in my opinion."

Berube also mentioned the possibility of making some changes to the team's lineup, but expressed reluctance to make too many adjustments.

Toronto's well-rounded offense has been a key factor in their success this postseason. Mitch Marner leads the team with seven points (one goal, six assists), followed by William Nylander and Auston Matthews with six points each (one goal, five assists). John Tavares and Matthew Knies have also contributed with three goals apiece.

The Maple Leafs have scored five power-play goals in 16 opportunities in the series, but have also given up two short-handed goals.

Despite holding a 3-0 series lead, two of Toronto's wins have come in overtime. Ottawa managed to avoid elimination in Game 4 with a victory in the third consecutive game that went into overtime.

Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark entered the series with a questionable playoff record. However, after allowing 12 goals on 65 shots in the first three games, the 2023 Vezina Award winner has only allowed three goals on the last 63 shots he's faced. Tuesday's win also marked his first postseason shutout.

"You could see his game improving as the playoffs went on, much like our team," said Ottawa coach Travis Green after Tuesday's game. "I had a feeling he was going to have a great game, and you could see he was feeling more comfortable out there."

If the Senators are able to secure their third consecutive win, Game 7 will take place on Saturday in Toronto.

PREDICTION

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

3

Ottawa Senators