Mets vs. Reds series preview: National League wild card on the line as playoff pushes heat up

This weekend at Great American Ball Park, the Cincinnati Reds will have their best (last?) chance to climb back into the wild card race when they host the New York Mets for three games. The Mets sit in the third wild card spot and the Reds are five games back. Here are the NL wild card standings:

1. Chicago Cubs: 80-60 (+5 GB)
2. San Diego Padres: 76-64 (+1 GB)
3. New York Mets: 75-65
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4. San Francisco Giants: 71-69 (4 GB)
5. Cincinnati Reds: 70-70 (5 GB)

After this weekend's series with the Mets, the Reds will travel to San Diego for three games with the Padres. This is the biggest week of the season for the Reds, hands down. Here are the details for this weekend's three-game set in Cincinnati. Select games can be streamed regionally on fubo (try for free).

The Mets are expected to call up right-hander Brandon Sproat for his MLB debut Sunday. Ace Hunter Greene lines up to pitch that day for the Reds, though the team has not yet confirmed he will be Sunday's starting pitcher. Both the Mets and Reds had an off-day Thursday. The two clubs will be as rested as you can be this time of year for this series.

Here now are three things to know about this weekend's important series in Cincinnati:

The Reds lead the season series

The Reds took two of three from the Mets at Citi Field in July, with the one loss a tight one-run game. Winning two of three this weekend would not only move the Reds closer in the standings, it would also clinch the season series and thus the tiebreaker. That would effectively knock another game off their deficit. The Mets need to sweep this weekend to clinch the tiebreaker, and, of course, if they sweep this weekend, they likely won't need the tiebreaker because the Reds will be far enough back in the rearview mirror.

The Reds won't have a better chance to make up ground

It can't be overstated: The Reds' season is essentially on the line these next six days between the Mets and Padres series. Taking two of three from the Mets would jump the Reds from five games behind the Mets to three games back with 19 games to play. To have their best chance at claiming a postseason spot, the Reds really need to sweep this weekend. That would move them to only one game behind the Mets. Dropping two of three would bump the Reds to six games behind the Mets with 19 to play, and that's a pretty enormous hole. These head-to-head games are the best chance to make up ground.

Who's hot, who's not

Baseball is a game of hot and cold streaks. Consistency is a myth. A .300 hitter doesn't get three hits every 10 at-bats, or even hit .300 every single month. He hits .300 one month, .250 the next, .350 the month after that, etc. Naturally, some Mets and Reds players go into this weekend swinging the bat better than others. Here are three New York players who have been red hot the last two weeks:

Vientos, who was so important during New York's NLCS run last year, has finally gotten his 2025 on track following a really sluggish start that saw him lose playing time to Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and others. Trade deadline pickup Cedric Mullins has been the only real drag on the Mets' offense lately. He has a .188/.297/.294 slash line since the trade.

Here now are three Reds players who have swung a hot bat the last two weeks:

Hayes came over at the trade deadline and is a special defender at third base. If the Reds have truly helped him get bat going, he'll be one of the more valuable players in baseball. McLain is finally performing like his 2023 self after missing last year with shoulder surgery. He was so impressive as a rookie two years ago and is beginning to look like that player again.

Elly De La Cruz, meanwhile, is in the middle of an extended slump that has seen him hit .217/.252/.318 since Aug. 1. He has not hit a home run since July 31. There is no chance -- zero -- the Reds will reach the postseason without De La Cruz performing like the All-Star he can be these final few weeks.